Global Total Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast to Reach a Record of $139 Billion in 2026, SEMI Reports

Front-end and Back-end Segments Projected to Support Consecutive Growth from 2024 through 2026

TOKYO, Dec. 9, 2024 /CNW/ -- Global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are forecast to set a new industry record, reaching $113 billion in 2024, growing 6.5% year-on-year, SEMI announced today in its Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast – OEM Perspective at SEMICON Japan 2024. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment growth is expected to continue in the following years, reaching new records of $121 billion in 2025 and $139 billion in 2026, supported by both the front-end and back-end segments.

"Three consecutive years of projected growth in investments in semiconductor manufacturing reflect the vital role our industry plays in underpinning the global economy and advancing technology innovation," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "Since our July 2024 forecast, the outlook for 2024 semiconductor equipment sales has brightened, especially with stronger-than-expected investments from China and in AI-related sectors. Together with our forecast extension through 2026, it highlights the robust growth drivers across segments, applications, and regions."

Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Segment

After registering a record $96 billion in sales last year, the wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment, which includes wafer processing, mask/reticle, and fab facilities equipment, is projected to grow 5.4% to $101 billion in 2024. This marks an increase from the previously forecast $98 billion in SEMI's 2024 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast. The upward revision mainly reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Additionally, China's investments continue to play a significant role in the WFE market expansion. Looking ahead, WFE segment sales are projected to expand 6.8% in 2025 and 14% in 2026, reaching $123 billion due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications.

Following two years of contraction, the back-end equipment segment in 2024 saw a strong recovery in particular in the second half of the year. Sales of semiconductor test equipment are projected to rise 13.8% to $7.1 billion in 2024, while assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment sales are projected to increase 22.6% to $4.9 billion. Furthermore, the back-end segment growth is expected to accelerate, with test equipment sales surging 14.7% in 2025 and 18.6% in 2026, respectively, while A&P sales are forecast to grow 16% in 2025 followed by 23.5% expansion in 2026. The back-end segments' growth is supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected increase in demand in the mobile, automotive, and industrial end-markets.

Wafer Fab Equipment Sales by Application

The sales of WFE for foundry and logic applications are expected to remain flat year-on-year at $58.6 billion in 2024, supported by resilient spending in mature nodes. The segment is forecast to see 2.8% growth in 2025 and to increase 15% to $69.3 billion in 2026, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the introduction of new device architectures including the transition to gate-all-around (GAA), and increased capacity expansion purchases.

Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to see significant increases through 2026 supported by increasing demand for HBM for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration. NAND equipment sales are expected to remain relatively soft in 2024, growing 0.7% to $9.3 billion as supply and demand continues to normalize, setting the stage for a 47.8% expansion to $13.7 billion in 2025 and 9.7% growth to $15.1 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, DRAM equipment sales are projected to see robust growth of 35.3% to $18.8 billion in 2024, followed by 10.4% and 6.2% year-on-year growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Region

China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2026. China is projected to maintain the top position over the forecast period as the region's equipment purchases continue to remain resilient despite the anticipated slowdown. Equipment shipments to China are projected to reach a record $49 billion in 2024, solidifying its lead over other regions. While equipment spending for most regions is expected to fall in 2024 before rebounding in 2025, China is expected to see a contraction in 2025 following significant investments over the past three years. All regions tracked are expected to see increases in 2026.

The SEMI forecast is based on collective input from top equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database. 

About SEMI Market Data

The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports:

• Monthly SEMI North American Billings Report, an early perspective of equipment market trends
• Monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment billings for seven regions and more than 22 market segments
• Bi-annual Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast – OEM Perspective, an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market

For more information online, please visit SEMI Market Data.

About SEMI

SEMI^® is the global industry association connecting over 3,000 member companies and 1.5 million professionals worldwide across the semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing supply chain. We accelerate member collaboration on solutions to top industry challenges through Advocacy, Workforce Development, Sustainability, Supply Chain Management and other programs. Our SEMICON^® expositions and events, technology communities, standards and market intelligence help advance our members' business growth and innovations in design, devices, equipment, materials, services and software, enabling smarter, faster, more secure electronics. Visit www.semi.org, contact a regional office, and connect with SEMI on LinkedIn and X to learn more.

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SOURCE SEMI